Pub. 3 2021-2022 Issue 1

30 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 17, Number 1 Released February 2021 Covering Fourth Quarter 2020 TM Publication Sponsored By: California Total New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - 2019 and 2020 Annual Totals TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News. State New Light Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Approach 1.8 Million Units in 2021 Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2021 ANNUAL TRENDS The California new vehicle market is expected to improve by 8 per- cent from 2020 to 2021. New light vehicle registrations are predicted to increase by approximately 130,000 units this year. The increase follows the 450,000 unit drop in 2020, as sales were impacted by the pandemic. Despite the decline last year, the market was still 58% higher than in 2009, the low point in sales during the Great Recession. *2021 forecast by Auto Outlook. 1.45 1.04 1.17 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.93 2.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.09 1.64 1.77 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. 2019 2020 Change 2019 2020 Change Registrations TOTAL 2,093,173 1,639,166 -21.7% 17,104,792 14,645,049 -14.4% Car 869,744 588,925 -32.3% 4,789,942 3,526,065 -26.4% Light Truck 1,223,429 1,050,241 -14.2% 12,314,850 11,118,984 -9.7% Domestic 656,882 532,471 -18.9% 7,676,149 6,627,738 -13.7% European 324,704 248,196 -23.6% 1,666,384 1,455,202 -12.7% Japanese 962,592 739,680 -23.2% 6,436,917 5,337,351 -17.1% Korean 148,995 118,819 -20.3% 1,325,342 1,224,758 -7.6% Market Share Car 41.6 35.9 -5.7 28.0 24.1 -3.9 Light Truck 58.4 64.1 5.7 72.0 75.9 3.9 Domestic 31.4 32.5 1.1 44.9 45.3 0.4 European 15.5 15.1 -0.4 9.7 9.9 0.2 Japanese 46.1 45.1 -1.0 37.6 36.4 -1.2 Korean 7.1 7.2 0.1 7.7 8.4 0.7 California new light vehicle mar- ket declined 21.7 percent from 2019 to 2020. The U.S. market fell 14.4 percent. Retail vehicle sales in the state held up better in 2020. New retail registrations fell 16.8 last year. Light truck registrations in the state declined 14.2 percent versus the 32.3 percent drop for passenger cars. QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier The state’s new vehicle market fell 12.6 percent in the Fourth Quarter of last year versus year earlier. The drop was an improve- ment from the 19.6 percent decline in the Third Quarter. The market has recorded year-over-year declines for 15 consecutive quarters. That streak could end in the First Quarter, when an increase is possible. Registrations will increase sharply vs. year earlier in the Second Quarter. Data source: AutoCount data from Experian. -3.8% -0.3% -4.3% -48.9% -19.6% -12.6% -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 3Q '19 vs. 3Q '18 4Q '19 vs. 4Q '18 1Q '20 vs. 1Q '19 2Q '20 vs. 2Q '19 3Q '20 vs. 3Q '19 4Q '20 vs. 4Q '19 % chgange vs. year earlier