Pub. 2 2020-2021 Issue 1

33 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 15, Number 4 Released November 2019 Covering Third Quarter 2019 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations in State Predicted To Exceed 1.9 Million Units in 2019 Historical data source: IHS California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2019 Source: IHS ANNUAL TRENDS New vehicle registrations in California are expected to slip to 1.91 million units in 2019. The state’s new vehicle market is predicted to decline 4.5 percent from 2018 to 2019, which would be the third consecutive annual decline. Although the market is shifting lower, new vehicle registrations this year should exceed the 2009 total by more than 80 percent. California and U.S. Total New Light Vehicle Registrations - YTD thru September TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE California U.S. YTD '18 YTD '19 Change YTD '18 YTD '19 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,504,342 1,427,578 -5.1% 12,857,847 12,767,471 -0.7% Car 683,697 609,590 -10.8% 4,082,387 3,682,012 -9.8% Light Truck 820,645 817,988 -0.3% 8,775,460 9,085,459 3.5% Domestic 456,266 434,344 -4.8% 5,713,490 5,707,903 -0.1% European 226,577 221,836 -2.1% 1,174,958 1,190,339 1.3% Japanese 723,403 671,784 -7.1% 5,014,494 4,868,521 -2.9% Korean 98,096 99,614 1.5% 954,905 1,000,708 4.8% Market Share Car 45.4 42.7 -2.7 31.8 28.8 -3.0 Light Truck 54.6 57.3 2.7 68.2 71.2 3.0 Domestic 30.3 30.4 0.1 44.4 44.7 0.3 European 15.1 15.5 0.4 9.1 9.3 0.2 Japanese 48.1 47.1 -1.0 39.0 38.1 -0.9 Korean 6.5 7.0 0.5 7.4 7.8 0.4 California new light vehicle market declined 5.1 percent during the first nine months of this year, while the U.S. market fell 0.7 percent. Light truck registrations in the state were down slightly, while passenger cars fell 10.8 percent. Light truck market share in California was 57.3 percent vs. 71.2 percent in the Nation. QUARTERLY RESULTS 1.40 1.04 1.11 1.22 1.53 1.71 1.85 2.05 2.09 2.05 2.00 1.91 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier The California new vehicle market recorded its tenth con- secutive year-over-year decline in the Third Quarter of 2019. New vehicle registrations in the state fell 4.2 percent in 3Q ‘19, an improvement from the 5.8% drop in the Second Quarter. -1.2% -3.4% -1.1% -3.5% -0.9% -5.3% -5.8% -4.2% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 4Q '17 vs. 4Q '16 1Q '18 vs. 1Q '17 2Q '18 vs. 2Q '17 3Q '18 vs. 3Q '17 4Q '18 vs. 4Q '17 1Q '19 vs. 1Q '18 2Q '19 vs. 2Q '18 3Q '19 vs. 3Q '18 % chgange vs. year earlier *2019 forecast by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS