Pub. 1 2019-2020 Issue 4

34 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 15, Number 3 Released August 2019 Covering Second Quarter 2019 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations in State Predicted To Fall Below Two Million Units in 2019 Historical data source: IHS California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2019 Source: IHS ANNUAL TRENDS New vehicle registrations in California are expected to slip below 2 million units in 2019. The state’s new vehicle market is predicted to decline 4.6 percent from 2018 to 2019, which would be the third consecutive annual decline. Although the market is shifting lower, new vehicle registrations are well above average, based on historical standards. California and U.S. Total New Light Vehicle Registrations - YTD thru June TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE California U.S. YTD '18 YTD '19 Change YTD '18 YTD '19 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,004,670 948,563 -5.6% 8,581,006 8,384,457 -2.3% Car 461,222 411,274 -10.8% 2,777,045 2,487,547 -10.4% Light Truck 543,448 537,289 -1.1% 5,803,961 5,896,910 1.6% Domestic 299,902 296,882 -1.0% 3,820,726 3,770,224 -1.3% European 153,510 144,636 -5.8% 786,292 772,479 -1.8% Japanese 485,303 443,204 -8.7% 3,337,458 3,194,120 -4.3% Korean 65,955 63,841 -3.2% 636,530 647,634 1.7% Market Share Car 45.9 43.4 -2.5 32.4 29.7 -2.7 Light Truck 54.1 56.6 2.5 67.6 70.3 2.7 Domestic 29.9 31.3 1.4 44.5 45.0 0.5 European 15.3 15.2 -0.1 9.2 9.2 0.0 Japanese 48.3 46.7 -1.6 38.9 38.1 -0.8 Korean 6.6 6.7 0.1 7.4 7.7 0.3 California new light vehicle market declined 5.6 percent during the first six months of this year, while the U.S. market fell 2.3 percent. Light truck registrations in the state slipped 1.1 percent, while passenger cars fell 10.8 percent. Passenger car market share in California was 43.4 percent vs. 29.7 percent in the Nation. QUARTERLY RESULTS 1.40 1.04 1.11 1.22 1.53 1.71 1.85 2.05 2.09 2.05 2.00 1.91 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier The California new vehicle market recorded its ninth con- secutive year-over-year decline in the second Quarter of 2019. As shown on the graph, the market is posting mild declines, following several years of big increases. -2.8% -1.2% -3.4% -1.1% -3.5% -0.9% -5.3% -5.9% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 3Q '17 vs. 3Q '16 4Q '17 vs. 4Q '16 1Q '18 vs. 1Q '17 2Q '18 vs. 2Q '17 3Q '18 vs. 3Q '17 4Q '18 vs. 4Q '17 1Q '19 vs. 1Q '18 2Q '19 vs. 2Q '18 % chgange vs. year earlier *2019 forecast by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS