Pub. 1 2019-2020 Issue 2

29 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 15, Number 1 Released February 2019 Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations Remained Above 2 million Units in 2018 Historical data source: IHS California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2019 Source: IHS ANNUAL TRENDS New vehicle registrations in California remained above the 2 million unit mark in 2018. The state’s new vehicle market is predicted to decline 2 percent from 2018 to 2019, which would be the third consecutive annual decline. Although the market is sliding lower, new vehicle registrations are well above average, based on historical standards. California and U.S. Total New Light Vehicle Registrations - YTD thru September TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE California U.S. 2017 2018 Change 2017 2018 Change Registrations TOTAL 2,047,809 2,001,995 -2.2% 17,147,729 17,110,889 -0.2% Car 996,425 896,500 -10.0% 6,135,336 5,335,684 -13.0% Light Truck 1,051,384 1,105,495 5.1% 11,012,393 11,775,205 6.9% Domestic 576,236 619,668 7.5% 7,569,340 7,647,813 1.0% European 317,928 309,407 -2.7% 1,576,038 1,587,841 0.7% Japanese 1,008,937 946,125 -6.2% 6,724,131 6,619,213 -1.6% Korean 144,708 126,795 -12.4% 1,278,220 1,256,022 -1.7% Market Share Car 48.7 44.8 -3.9 35.8 31.2 -4.6 Light Truck 51.3 55.2 3.9 64.2 68.8 4.6 Domestic 28.1 31.0 2.9 44.1 44.7 0.6 European 15.5 15.5 0.0 9.2 9.3 0.1 Japanese 49.3 47.3 -2.0 39.2 38.7 -0.5 Korean 7.1 6.3 -0.8 7.5 7.3 -0.2 California new light vehicle market declined 2.2 percent last year, while the U.S. market was off a slim 0.2 percent. Light truck registrations in the state increased 5.1 percent, while passenger cars fell 10 percent. Passenger car market share in California was 44.8 percent vs. 31.2 percent in the Nation. QUARTERLY RESULTS 1.40 1.04 1.11 1.22 1.53 1.71 1.85 2.05 2.09 2.05 2.00 1.96 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier The California new vehicle market fell by a slim 1 percent in the Fourth Quarter of 2018, an improvement from the 3.5 per- cent drop in the Third Quarter. As shown on the graph, the market is posting mild declines, following several years of big increases. 0.8% -4.3% -2.8% -1.2% -3.4% -1.1% -3.5% -1.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 1Q '17 vs. 1Q '16 2Q '17 vs. 2Q '16 3Q '17 vs. 3Q '16 4Q '17 vs. 4Q '16 1Q '18 vs. 1Q '17 2Q '18 vs. 2Q '17 3Q '18 vs. 3Q '17 4Q '18 vs. 4Q '17 % chgange vs. year earlier *2019 forecast by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS