California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 20, Number 2 Released April 2024 Covering First Quarter 2024 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Light Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Exceed 1.8 Million Units in 2024 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2024 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2009 thru 2024 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 0.96 1.08 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.59 1.77 1.82 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '23 YTD '24 Change YTD '23 YTD '24 Change Registrations TOTAL 428,561 431,638 0.7% 3,430,826 3,759,144 9.6% Car 133,847 119,731 -10.5% 703,301 711,455 1.2% Light Truck 294,714 311,907 5.8% 2,727,525 3,047,689 11.7% Domestic 159,557 147,302 -7.7% 1,517,904 1,579,928 4.1% European 65,855 67,022 1.8% 355,501 390,821 9.9% Japanese 162,787 179,388 10.2% 1,186,819 1,416,015 19.3% Korean 40,362 37,926 -6.0% 370,602 372,380 0.5% Market Share Car 31.2 27.7 -3.5 20.5 18.9 -1.6 Light Truck 68.8 72.3 3.5 79.5 81.1 1.6 Domestic 37.2 34.1 -3.1 44.2 42.0 -2.2 European 15.4 15.5 0.1 10.4 10.4 0.0 Japanese 38.1 41.6 3.5 34.6 37.7 3.1 Korean 9.4 8.8 -0.6 10.8 9.9 -0.9 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 11.4% 6.0% 15.9% 20.1% 5.5% 0.7% 4Q '22 vs. 4Q '21 1Q '23 vs. 1Q '22 2Q '23 vs. 2Q '22 3Q '23 vs. 3Q '22 4Q '23 vs. 4Q '22 1Q '24 vs. 1Q '23 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations YTD ‘23 and YTD ‘24 thru March New vehicle registrations in California are predicted to exceed 1.8 million units this year and increase 2.7 percent from 2023. The projection is 15% higher than the total in 2022 when the market was significantly impacted by product shortages and is approaching the prepandemic level of 1.89 million units in 2019. Pent-up demand should provide a boost to sales for at least the rest of this year. Elevated interest rates are keeping loan and lease payments high, but rising incentives have stabilized transaction prices. New light vehicle registrations in California increased by less than one percent during the first three months of this year versus year earlier, below the 9.6 percent improvement in the Nation. Weaker results in California were partially attributable to relatively strong sales in the First Quarter of 2023. California domestic brand registrations (which include Tesla) declined 7.7 percent so far this year. Large increases for Honda and Toyota contributed to the 10.2 percent improvement in Japanese brand registrations. New vehicle registrations in the state increased for the sixth consecutive quarter in 1Q ‘23. As mentioned in the previous release, the pace of improvement is expected to ease in 2024, with percentage increases likely to remain positive, but in the single digits. 35 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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